Snowpack Update - January, 2026
Hi, friends, and welcome to our first snowpack report of winter 25-26. I’m a bit later than normal with this one, partly because of holiday business, but mainly because our winter has been so dang weird (scientific term) that I’d hoped that waiting a bit would let things settle out and make everything a bit easier to explain.
To set the stage, let’s turn back the clock to December 2025. All of us were talking about the weather. The RAIN. The warm. It was downright depressing. It rained on Christmas in West Yellowstone. I looked out the window that day wishing that I was out cross-country skiing with my family, but knowing it wouldn’t be any fun. We ended up having one of if not the warmest and wettest Decembers on record for our area. Every data station in Montana logged precipitation values over 150% of the 20-year median in December. The Atmospheric River definitely delivered. If there is a silver lining to this story, it is that we were getting water, and water around here is a good thing. At mid elevations it rained or snowed and melted, with a lot of that water soaking into the ground or running off into reservoirs (Hebgen rose 0.6ft in December). At high elevations, where the temps were still below freezing, it snowed. A lot. Not the Champaigne powder that the sliders and riders dream of, but thick, heavy, wet stuff. Snow water equivalents climbed, despite the lousy recreational conditions.
Thankfully, we valley dwellers have access to resources like the NRCS Snotel data network, and the published daily reports from awesome organizations like the Henrys Fork Foundation and the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. Even though we were looking out in our yards at grass, we could at least find solace in knowing that somewhere, up high, it was real winter.
As we slipped and slid into January, temperatures dropped a bit, and West Yellowstone finally got pummeled with some proper snowfall. While still not as cold and wintery as we are accustomed to, skiing and riding conditions have greatly improved, and snowpack data for the site here at town has definitely normalized. Weather for West Yellowstone is looking dry for the next week, with some moisture showing up toward the end of the 10-day forecast. Temps remain at or below freezing through that period. As it always seems, the lower elevations are just a cold snap and a couple of good dumps away from being right back in ok shape. Keep up the snow dances, offerings and prayers to Ullr, or whatever other divine connections you might have.
So, how about some numbers and commentary to chew on. Note that these numbers are based on NRCS Snotel data and online mapping tools, and the number are from January 13 and 14, when this report was written. Also remember, things are very different up high than they are in the valleys right now, and the numbers absolutely show that. Check out the statewide maps for snow water equivalent and precipitation. Lots of green and blue shading colors in our home waters and beyond. That’s always a good thing!
Diving a bit deeper, in the Madison watershed, Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is at 106% of median for this date, which puts us at right at half of our median peak snowpack with 97 days left in the typical snowpack building season. Comparing the Black line (this winter) to the blue line (last winter) you can see we are a bit ahead of where we sat a year ago.
In the Yellowstone River Headwaters, SWE is at a whopping 136% of median, and is already at 70% of the median peak value with 101 days remaining in the typical snowpack building time period. Compared to last year, this is AMAZING news. On this date in 2025, the SWE in the Yellowstone Headwaters was only 9 inches of water, and well below the median. This year, the SWE is 15.2 inches of water! 6.2 inches of water is enough for a nice big cutthroat to hold in while sipping pmds, if you know what I mean.
The Upper Henry’s Fork is a somewhat lower elevation watershed, and the snowpack is, as expected, slightly lower. SWE is at 91% of median, and 46% of the median peak with 87 days remaining in the typical snowpack building period. This too, is more SWE than we had in that watershed one year ago.
So, there you have it. Personally, I’m more hopeful about our water situation after researching and writing this report than I was a couple of weeks ago. Something that quite a few of us are interested in this year is how all the early moisture soaking into the ground will ultimately impact our stream flows and runoff this coming spring and summer. Last year, a dry fall resulted in very dry ground conditions come spring, and we saw a lot of snowmelt soaking in and recharging aquifers and less ending up as stream flow/runoff. Only time will tell how it shakes out for us this year, but it sure is interesting to consider. We will be back soon enough (next month) with a new update and hopefully more good news and numbers.
Until then, take care.
Matt and the BSA Crew
